The Gauntlet Awaits in Tampa
The Red Sox have 12 games left and a slim shot at the top seed, but the path is brutal. Boston sits 8 1/2 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays with only two weeks to close the gap. The Rays are the team to beat, but they’re also the squad facing the toughest run left. They face a 10-game gauntlet against three playoff teams in their final stretch.
That includes a four-game series at Yankee Stadium that could decide the whole division. (Think about the pressure of playing in that environment for four straight days while fighting for your life in the standings.) The Rays have a strength of schedule rating of .521, which is higher than most contenders. They play the Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies in their final four series. The Yankees and Phillies both have winning records that make them dangerous opponents. The Rays lead the AL East at 90-59, but they can’t afford to slip up against anyone.
Red Sox Must Win on the Road
Boston holds the second wild-card spot, but they need to pass the Yankees to host a series. The Red Sox have a 99.9% chance to make the postseason. That is great news, but it doesn’t help if they lose the tiebreaker. The team must win games against Texas and Tampa to move up. Their next three games are on the road against the Rangers, who are 74-76. (A team with a losing record shouldn’t feel like a safety net when you’re fighting for home-field advantage.)
The schedule gets even harder right after that. The Red Sox travel to face the Rays in three games. This series is the key to their seeding. If they split or lose, they will likely start the playoffs on the road. The Yankees have a four-game lead over Boston and play the Rays at home. New York doesn’t own the tiebreaker, so they must sweep that series to take the division.
Why The Rays Have The Hardest Path
The Rays have the worst luck with the schedule. They have to play the best teams when they are already tired. The Yankees have a slightly easier path with a strength of schedule of .508. They play the Twins, Diamondbacks, and Orioles, who are all good but not as strong as the Rays. The Red Sox have a .520 rating, which is tough but manageable if they win at home.
The real story is the final week. Yankee Stadium hosts four games over three days between the Rays and Yankees. That is insane. The Rays have to win those games to keep the division. If they lose, the Yankees take the top seed and a first-round bye.
The Red Sox just need to win their own games to stay alive for the wild card. The season ends in a fortnight, and the picture is getting clear. The Rays have to beat the Yankees to win it all. The Red Sox have to beat everyone else to get a home game. The schedule is the biggest factor now.
