The Ace is Slowing Down
Paul Skenes is not the unstoppable force he was just a few months ago. The biggest surprise in baseball right now is that the Pirates’ superstar pitcher has lost serious speed off his fastball. “Skenes’ average fastball velocity this season is 96.8 mph, down from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 mph in 2024.” That is a massive drop for a guy who used to sit at 99 miles per hour. When you lose nearly two miles per hour, hitters can see the ball much better. They can time up pitches they used to just watch fly by.
Over the Monster reports that Skenes has allowed runs in every single outing since his great starts back in early May. His ERA has climbed to 5.00 over that stretch. That is a huge jump from his career norms. He has struck out 100 batters in 84.2 innings, which is still impressive. But he has also walked 30 and given up 8 home runs. The control is gone, and the power is fading. This is a rare look at a young star struggling to find his rhythm in the middle of a long season.
The Red Sox Have a Real Shot
The Boston Red Sox just got Greg Weissert back from the minor leagues. The team finally won a game after a rough stretch where they lost to the Athletics. Weissert was not in the mix during those losses. Now that he is back, the bullpen looks stronger. The Pirates open their weekend series with Bubba Chandler. He has had some shaky starts, allowing between 2 and 7 hits per game. His ERA has improved since June, but he does not often throw more than 91 pitches. If the Red Sox can push him early, they might get a win.
Jared Jones is another Pirates pitcher who might be a problem for Boston. He just came back from missing the entire 2025 season. His last start against the Mets was a disaster. He gave up 8 runs in just 3 innings. He has allowed a home run in each of his last 4 starts. In 13 starts this year, he has surrendered 10 long balls. Eight of those starts lasted less than 5 innings. If the Red Sox can make Jones work too hard, they could take a big lead early in the game.
Why the Red Sox Must Attack
We know the Red Sox bats woke up in the 8th inning against the Blue Jays. It took a while, but they finally scored. The win was their first since the blowout loss to the Athletics. Now they face a Pirates team that looks shaky on the mound. Skenes might be bad right now, and that is a huge advantage for Boston. Even if Skenes is still pretty good, he is not the same guy who dominated earlier this year. The Red Sox need to put pressure on him from the very first pitch.
Jake Bennett had a rare bad night against the A’s recently. He gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings. He has been setting high marks for innings pitched this year. The team needs him to be more efficient if they want to win. Payton Tolle showed how to do it right in the minors. If Bennett can copy that style, the Red Sox will have a better chance against the Pirates. The rotation is young, but the offense is finally coming alive. This is the time to strike while the enemy is vulnerable.
The Pirates have good pitching depth, and Jones could be great in 2027. But right now, he is still rebuilding. Patrick Sandoval also struggled against the Jays. He gave up 4 runs and never seemed in control. The bullpen was tired, and they could not get enough outs. The Red Sox must not make the same mistakes. They need to be sharp, aggressive, and ready to score. The numbers are on their side this weekend. The Pirates ace is slowing down, and the Red Sox bats are finally roaring back to life.
